For further information contact: Douglas Pachico

[Introduction] [Project Description] [Project Workbreakdown structure] [1997 Highlights]
[Output I: Databases and Methodologies] [Output II: Ex-ante Impact Assessment]
[Output III: Ex-post Impact Assessment] [Output IV: Monitoring Systems] [Staff List] [Publications and Presentations List] [References cited in Report]

OUTPUT II: EX-ANTE IMPACT ASSESSMENT

2.1 Trends Analysis

2.2 Estimation of impact

2.1 Trends Analysis

2.1.A. Tendencias de la ganadería vacuna en América Latina: L. Rivas

Resumen. Se elaboró un estudio de las tendencias generales de la ganadería vacuna en América Latina dentro del marco del desenvolvimiento económico global de la región y en el contexto de las nuevas tendencias mundiales de globalizción, integración económica, competitividad y uso racional de los recursos naturales. El estudio incluye los siguientes tópicos:1) Tendencias recientes del desarrollo latinoamericano, 2) Tendencias generales de la ganadería vacuna, 3) Tendencias en producción, consumo, comercio y productividad, 4) Mercados potenciales para América Latina y 5) Desarrollo tecnológico.

El trabajo se apoya en fuentes de información secundaria tales como estadísticas de FAO y estudios de CEPAL, Banco Mundial entre otros. Para dar una perspectiva del marco donde se inserta el sector ganadero se hace a una breve revisión de las tendencias generales de crecimiento de la economía regional y del sector agropecuario en particular. Se observa una recuperación de la actividad económica expresada en tasas positivas de crecimiento del producto por habitante, el cual en el período 1990-94 creció al 3.4%, en tanto que la tasa de inflación bajó en 1996 a 19.3% para la región como un todo. No obstante, la generación de empleo ha sido muy limitada por lo que se observan incrementos en las tasas de desocupación.

El sector agropecuario regional a lo largo de las tres últimas décadas presenta una acentuada tendencia a reducir su ritmo de crecimiento, por ejemplo en México en los 70 crecía al 4.2% en promedio anual, en los 90 está creciendo a menos del 1%. Situación similar se aprecia en Colombia, Paraguay, Argentina. Aparentemente los ajustes estructurales y los esquemas de apertura implementados para afrontar la crísis de los 80, aún no logran acelerar el crecimiento agropecuario latinoamericano.

La producción de carne y leche muestra mayor dinamismo en la zona tropical de América Latina. En el período 1961-95, la producción de carne vacuna creció al 3.3% anual frente 0.5% por año en el Cono Sur. Una situación similar se aprecia en producción de leche. Lo anterior, está relacionado con los ya altos consumos de productos pecuarios en la zona templada, su lento ritmo crecimiento poblacional y su dependencia de la demanda externa.

Un hecho sobresaliente en el desempeño de la ganadería tropical es que la productividad, expresada como producción de carne por cabeza en inventario o de leche por vaca en lactancia, con el tiempo se ha hecho mas importante como factor determinante del crecimiento de la producción. En un largo período, 1961-1995, más del 90% del crecimiento de la producción de carne obedece al incremento del inventario de ganado. Sin embargo, en un período mas corto y reciente 1988-1995, el 50% de la expansión de la producción es explicado por ganancias en productividad.

En el estudio se analiza la evolución de los mercados mundiales de carne y de leche y de los mercados potenciales para la producción ganadera de la región. Se concluye que los países del Sudeste de Asia y del Pacífico por la magnitud y crecimiento de su población, por la rápida sostenida expansión de sus ingresos, por su limitada dotación de recursos de tierras, pueden constituirse en una muy buena opción para la producción ganadera regional, ya que se ha comprobado que el crecimiento de ingresos está muy relacionado positivamente con la demanda de proteína de origen animal.

El sector ganadero regional es heterogéneo en cuanto a dotación de factores, sistemas y tecnologías de producción, ubicación geográfica por lo cual para ganar espacios en los mercados externos se requiere una amplia gama de tecnologías de producción y de estrategias de política para mejorar su posición competitiva en los próximos años.

Colaboradores:

• James A. García

2.1.B Cassava: M. V. Gottret

Background

• During 1996, a document "Global Cassava Trends: Reassessing the Crop’s Future" was written, and published as a CIAT Working Document. This document served as a background document for the CGIAR system wide review on root and tuber crops research. 

• The CGIAR system wide review on tuber crops research recommended that a vision document be prepared on the role of roots and tubers in the CGIAR. 

• The Centers reviewed and accepted this recommendation, and a task force was assigned to prepare this document. The purpose of the task force was: 

• The task force included participants from CIP, CIAT, IITA, and IFPRI. CIAT was held responsible to provide information for cassava. 

• Support was requested to CIAT’s BP-1 project to write four sections of this vision document.

Main Achievements

• Three sections were written for the vision document:

Progress Report – Summary

1. Cassava trends

1.1 Production, area, yield and geographic location

For the analysis of cassava area, production and yield trends two time periods will be used. The first time period corresponds to 1961-1985 and the second to 1986-1996. These two time periods have been chosen because, according to Henry and Gottret (1996), since 1985, cassava supply, demand and markets have been changing, and in many countries and areas, cassava utilization has evolved considerably. In addition, cassava-based product trade patterns have changed.

1.1.1 World cassava production trends

Global aggregated data indicate that world cassava production has continued to increase during the last decade. However, it grew at a slower pace (2%) than in 1961-86 period (2.6%) (Figure 1). During the earlier period, cassava production growth rate exceeded that for population in developing countries, whereas during the last decade it has been slower. Since 1985, world production has increased by more than 30 million ton reaching a record 164 million tons in 1995, but decreased in 1996 to 163 million tons.

Production increase has differed from one continent to another. In the early 1980s, Africa accounted for 40% of total world production, Latin America 24%, and Asia 36%. But by 1996 these percentages had changed to 52, 20 and 28%, respectively, indicating significant growth in Africa’s production.

The increase in world production during the last decade was achieved mainly through expansion of area at an annual rate of 1.8% (Figure 2). Growth in average yield has dropped, partially because of adverse climatic conditions, especially in Latin America and Africa (FAO, 1994). In 1996, Asia had the highest average yield at 13 t/ha, followed by Latin America with 11.8 t and Africa with 8.4 ton.

1.1.2 Latin America

Trends in Latin America are heavily influenced by Brazil, which contributes 77% of the region’s cassava production. During the last decade, cassava production remained relatively constant with slight yearly fluctuations (Figure 3). There were similar fluctuations in area with a slight tendency to decrease the area planted to cassava. However, this reduction in cassava area was compensated with a proportionate increase in yield. Yields recovered from the all-time low in 1983 but were reduced significantly by a 3 year drought at the beginning of the 90's in Northeast Brazil (Figure 4).

In Latin America, cassava production declined during 1996, in particular in Brazil and Paraguay. In Brazil, although a government price support for farmers was established, area planted to cassava and yields were reduced in major growing areas. By contrast, in Colombia, the rise in output, although marginal, is the result of various measures implemented by the Government to sustain and expand cultivation. The 1995-98 Plan for the strengthening of the cassava agroindustry on Colombia’s Atlantic Coast, has the objective of developing processing industries for chips, pellets and starch, and promoting new technology applications in order to meet the growing food, feed, and industrial demand for cassava and cassava products (FAO, 1997).

1.1.3 Asia

This continent occupies second place (48 million ton) in terms of global cassava production and first place in yield (13 ton/ha). From the early 1960's to the mid 80's, Asia saw a strong expansion in cassava production (4.8%), as indicated in Figure 5. This was stimulated mainly by opportunities to export cassava chips and pellets to the European Union (EU). The main exporters have been Thailand and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia.

Currently, these two countries account for 75% of Asian production and 90-95% of export volumes. Nevertheless, the early high rate of growth has not been sustained during the last decade, with the expansion in production slowing to almost 0.1%. Previously, production growth was based almost equally on yield and area increases. But in the past 10 years, yield improvement has been the main driving force, though at a much slower rate than before (Figure 6).

Cassava output in Asia during 1996 was reduced by 3%, mainly reflecting reductions in India, the Philippines, and Thailand. In Thailand, cassava production declined by 3% as a result of heavy monsoon rains throughout the country, which affected cassava roots and yields. Similarly in India, output is declined as plantings were damaged or destroyed by a tropical cyclone, which hit some of the main producing areas at the end of 1996. By contrast, in Indonesia, output rose by 3%, mainly reflecting favorable weather conditions (FAO, 1997).

1.1.4 Africa

In Africa, cassava supplies have grown at an annual rate of 4.2% over the last decade (Figure 7), compared to 2.4% during 1961-86. In the latter period, area expansion and yield improvement contributed almost to growth in cassava production. But over the last decade, area expansion has accounted for 76% of the production increase. (Figure 8).

According to FAO statistics, cassava yield in Africa during 1991-93 fluctuated around 8.3 t/ha. However, Nweke (1994) argues that cassava yields in the COSCA countries averaged 12 t/ha in 1991-1992, based on surveys in 275 representative villages. The same surveys show that cassava production is increasing in about 70% of the sample, replacing mainly fallow and pastures (40%), and other crops (58%) (Nweke, 1994). The principal reasons for the increase in production are insufficient food supplies as a result of drought (30%), demographic pressure (25%), and improved markets (20%). The results also show that cassava production is increasing more in areas with a sub-humid climate than in those with a dry climate and more at low altitudes than at mid or high altitudes. This primary information is consistent with FAO data regarding the expansion of cassava in most regions, but differs considerably with respect to yields.

Production in Africa increased by 1% above 1995 primarily as a result of favorable climatic conditions, which favored plantings and yields. Also, conductive government policies were directed towards large-scale multiplication and diffusion of high yielding and disease resistant planting material, a progressive replacement of existing varieties with new ones and the promotion of new farm applications. However, in some countries of Africa (Uganda and Zaire) output was affected by civil strife that disrupted farming activities and also as a result of reduced plantings and yields aggravated by major infestations of cassava "green mite" and outbreaks of "mosaic-virus disease". Also, poor crops were reported for Kenya and Niger following dry conditions (FAO, 1997).

1.2 Cassava utilization as food, feed and for industrial purposes

1.2.1 World utilization trends

Cassava utilization in the world has show important changes in the last decade as shown in Table 1. Over the period 1982-1995, the use of cassava for direct human consumption in its fresh or processed form has declined. This decline has been most significant in Asia and to a lesser extent in Africa. Cassava for animal feed, on the other hand, has increased in Asia and Africa. The most significant changes have occurred in the domestic use of cassava for industrial purposes, with the proportion of cassava going to this use increasing in all three continents. The share of cassava roots processed for export of both, chips and pellets and starch, almost exclusively from Asia, has declined over the ten year period by 20.6 and 16.3 %, respectively.

Table 1. Percentage changes in cassava utilization for Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Developed Countries, 1982-1995.

Source: CIAT estimates based on FAOSTAT, 1997. Food Balance Sheets, and Crops & Products Trade Tables.

1.2.2 Latin America

Cassava utilization in Latin America has begun to show important changes in the last decade. As shown in Figure 9, the overall trend is toward an increasing industrial use of cassava roots, mainly processed into starch. The share of cassava roots used for human consumption did not change significantly, and some reduction in waste can also be observed.

Changes in cassava utilization in Brazil are evident from increases in the share used for industrial domestic consumption, but also during the 1990s Brazil began to export cassava starch. During 1992-95 in average 5.2% of cassava roots have been processed into starch and exported. In contrast, the share of cassava roots which is used for human consumption, mainly as farinha de mandioca, and for animal feed have decreased during the last decade (Figure 10).

In most countries of Latin America usage of fresh and processed cassava is estimated to have increased in 1996. Although farinha de mandioca remains the main cassava product in Brazil, new markets for native and fermented starch are evolving. Also, a greater use of cassava for animal feed is reported in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay (FAO, 1997).

1.2.3 Asia

Cassava utilization in Asia and especially in Thailand, the major cassava producing country, is changing on two fronts: product and market diversification. As shown in Figures 11 and 12, in the early 1980s, cassava chips and pellets for export markets represented 35 and 87% of total cassava utilization in Asia and Thailand, respectively. But by the early 1990s, this share has decreased to 28 and 85%. Most of the difference went to processing into starch for domestic and export markets, and for domestic animal feed.

Thailand market mix has undergone significant changes as well. During the 1970s the EU was the principal market for exported chips and pellets, and very little cassava was consumed domestically. With the signing of the Voluntary Cassava Export Agreement between Thailand and the EU in 1982, pressure was put on Thai exporters to open new non-European markets. They penetrated traditional feed grain markets in a number of countries by selling cassava pellets at up to 30% below the price paid under the EU quota. It is estimated that the share of cassava pellet exports to the EU has decreased from 98% in 1982 to 67% in 1992 (TTTA, various issues) (Henry and Gottret, 1996). The domestic market, principally for starch and pellets, during the early 1990s absorbed 6.2% of total cassava supplies, up from 0 % during the early 1980s (Figure 12). According to Titapiwatanakun (1996), in the period 1989-1993 between 33 and 40% of cassava roots (5-6 million tons) were processed into cassava starch in Thailand. This level of product diversification, out of feed products (chips and pellets) and into starch is not substantiated by FAO’s figures (Figure 12).

During 1996, most Asian countries, in particular, China, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Japan, domestic supplies were further supplemented by imports of cassava starch. These imports were used to meet the demand of food products for urban consumers, including noodles, snack foods, chips and cakes. Also in Thailand, the volume of cassava chip and pellets exports have decreased in favor of cassava flour and starch for the domestic industry and for exports in line with the government policy to become less dependent on exports to the EU (FAO, 1997).

1.2.4 Africa

In Africa, cassava is mainly grown for food, either in its fresh or processed form, as seen in Figure 13. However, during the early 1990s, new industrial and feed markets began to emerge.

Based on FAO data for 1980-1984, Dorosh (1989) estimated that about 50% of cassava production in Africa were being processed, while 38% was destined for direct human consumption without processing. Results of the COSCA survey show that cassava processing currently absorbs 70% of supplies (Nweke, 1994), suggesting that the share going to processing has increased by 30% over the last decade. This increased may be exaggerated, however, because of incompatibility between the two data series compared. Even so, Lynam (1991) also noted the trend toward increased volumes of processed product and argued that root crops, including cassava, are gradually being transformed from a subsistence to a market orientation (Henry and Gottret, 1996).

Rapid urbanization and relative improvement of market channels are important factors in this development (Lynam, 1991). Processing tends to predominate more in isolated areas than in those close to markets. The introduction of improved processing technology, such as partial mechanization of "gari" making, has also contributed to increased volumes of processed cassava. COSCA data and overall production trends suggest a strong demand for traditional cassava products (Henry and Gottret, 1996).

During 1996, cassava consumption in Africa was stimulated partly by the rise in the domestic price of cereals, reflecting the high import prices and the disruption of grain marketing systems due to civil strife in some countries. In countries such as Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and C^ te d’Ivoire, consumers have reacted in recent years to a loss in purchasing power, following the devaluation of the CFA currency, by increasing consumption of roots and tubers, including cassava. As a result, the demand for cassava in those countries is estimated to have risen well above available supplies, thus pushing up prices. In Nigeria, despite the removal of the export ban on cassava and cassava by-products in place since 1988 and of all taxes on cassava exports, per capita consumption continued its upward trend as new varieties are preferred over traditional ones in a number of food preparations (FAO, 1997).

2. Economic potential of cassava

Cassava markets can be classified into four groups: (1) fresh and processed cassava for human consumption, (2) fresh and dried cassava for animal consumption, (3) native and modified starches for food and non-food uses, and (4) cassava flour for food and non-food uses.

The list of potential uses for cassava is large and the potential demand for these products could be high. However, cassava products have to compete with its substitutes in two ways: (1) in mass markets, though price competitiveness, and (2) in specialized markets, based on intrinsic quality characteristics.

2.1 Fresh and processed cassava for human consumption

The first group includes the market for fresh roots, which can be consumed in their natural form, or can be commercialized with some level of post-harvest treatment to extend their shelf life. This market for cassava includes pre-processed cassava, where the roots are pealed, in some cases pre-cooked, vacuum packed, and frozen. Fried cassava chips, similar to fried potato chips, which are produced in relatively small quantities in several countries, also fall within this category.

Cassava demand studies for Latin America conducted by CIAT (Sanint et. al, 1985; Lynam et. al., 1987; Gottret et. al, 1995) concluded that the demand for fresh cassava is related to its own-price, income, the price of substitutes, and the degree of urbanization. Given the actual tendencies in the price of cassava and its substitutes, income growth in Latin American economies and the increasing level of urbanization, the demand for fresh cassava roots is only expected to increase in line with the rate of population growth, at between 0 and 3% per year. In terms of potential, Janssen (1986) showed that fresh cassava is a preferred food in lowland tropical regions of South America. This research is supported by empirical evidence of increased volumes of fresh cassava being exported to North American and European cities that have large immigrant populations of Latin American and African origin. This suggests that the pattern of urban consumption of fresh cassava in Latin America could be modified by an increased use of existing technology for the conservation of fresh roots (e.g. covering the roots with a layer of paraffin wax or freezing). As incomes rise, the demand for these more expensive commodities will increase. A breakthrough development in this area would be the use of molecular techniques to genetically suppress the rapid postharvest deterioration of cassava roots. This would improve product quality and substantially reduce market risk.

Farinha de mandioca (a toasted flour consumed throughout Brazil) and cassabe (a flat unleavened bread consumed in the Caribbean and Amazonian and Orinocan basins) are the principal traditional processed forms in Latin America and the Caribbean. Henry and Gottret (1996) found that consumption of farinha de mandioca is higher among poorer consumers and decreases as their incomes rise. 58% of the urban farinha consumers surveyed in Ceara by Betancourt (1994) responded that consumption has increased over the last years, while only 14% said it had decreased. Henry and Gottret (1996) conclude that since real farm-gate and farinha retail prices have decrease in the last decade at an annual rate of 5.5 and 1.2%, respectively, farinha demand will continue to expand, especially in rural and poorer urban markets.

2.2 Fresh and dried cassava for animal consumption

Cassava has been used traditionally for on-farm animal feeding in its fresh form. According to FAO Food Balance Sheets (FAOSTAT, 1996), the portion of fresh cassava roots that are used on-farm for animal feed, mainly to feed pigs, is relatively low and has been decreasing from 4.3% of total world production in 1981 to 3.4% in 1994. This decrease was mainly a response to the improved demand for cassava roots by industry.

Thailand, and to a less extent other Asian countries, have been commercially producing cassava chips for animal feed since the early 1960s. Latin America entered this market in the early 1980s taking advantage of the growing demand for animal feed. The lower protein content of dry cassava, compared with sorghum and maize, means that the former enters minimum cost feed rations at a price of 82 to 86% the price of sorghum. Cassava starch processing by-products contain high levels of fiber and carbohydrates and can also be used for animal feeding. Recently, a new product, based on a mix of dried cassava with toasted whole soybean meal, has been developed. Dried cassava is also often mixed with other local protein sources, which can be less expensive than soybean. This mix of dried cassava chips with a protein source has the purpose of improving the nutritional value of the chips, and become a one-to-one substitute for maize or sorghum.

The economic potential of cassava for use in animal feed depends mainly on how well it can compete with its major substitutes: sorghum and maize. Figure 14 shows that while maize prices have been increased at an annual rate of 1.3% and sorghum prices decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% after 1990, international cassava pellet prices have been decreasing at an average annual rate of 4.7%. The continued price competitiveness of dry cassava will depend on enhancing productivity levels through the introduction of varieties with higher starch content and of management practices that reduce production costs.

Figure 14. Comparison of cassava pellet prices with sorghum and maize prices, 1981-95.

2.3 Native and modified starches for food and non-food uses

The demand for starch is marked by the versatility of the product. Almost all the principal industries have a use for starch, and as a result, the industrialization process is followed by a significant increase in the demand for this product. Starches are also modified by changing their physical and chemical properties to adjust the product to the particular needs of clients, or to copy a competitive product.

According to Maneepun (1996), the world starch market grew from 15.1 million ton in 1980 to 33.7 million ton in 1993. Maize starch has the highest share in this market with 77% or 26 million ton, followed by cassava starch with a share of about 11% or 3.7 million-ton. Of this world demand for starches, 56% is used in the production of sweetness, 11% for ethanol production, 8% by the food industry, 4% by the non-food industry, 2% in textile, and 5% in corrugated board.

The starch market has two segments: mass markets and specialized markets. In the first segment, starches compete mainly on prices, while in the second segment, starches compete based on their functional properties (Ostertag, 1996). Figure 15 shows the levels and trends of different sources of starch for the period 1981-95. This analysis shows that cassava starch competes well with maize starch on the basis of price. However, cassava starch prices have been increasing at an annual rate of 2.2%, while maize prices have been increasing at a lower annual rate of 1.3%. On the other hand, potato starch prices are significantly higher than maize and cassava starches and are increasing at an annual rate of 1.5%, although they have decreased significantly after 1990.

Figure 15. Comparison of cassava starch prices with maize and potato starch prices, 1981-95.

There are a number of scientific and technical articles that compare the functional properties of starches from different sources. Maneepun (1996), in a suitability and performance evaluation of potato, maize, wheat, cassava, and waxy maize starch for the food industry, classified potato starch as the most suitable, followed by cassava starch, waxy maize starch, maize starch and wheat starch

2.4 Cassava flour for human consumption

A new trend has emerged in several Asia and Latin American countries toward utilization of high-quality cassava flour as a partial substitute for wheat in bakery and other food products.

Although volumes of cassava flour used in the food industry are still relatively small, interest seems to be growing. Figure 16 shows the trends of wheat, cassava, wheat flour and cassava flour prices in Colombia for the 1981-95 period. This data shows that cassava flour was able to compete on the basis of prices with wheat flour, but wheat flour prices have been decreasing at an annual rate of 2.6 % to equal the price of cassava flour. However, it is important to note that there are several non-price barriers for cassava flour use by certain industries. In particular, bakers do not want to take the risk of decreasing the quality of their products, by partially substituting cassava flour for wheat flour, and market penetration can be an important limiting factor for the development of this industry. Product research, closely linked to the needs of client industries and based on the functional and price advantages of using cassava flour in specific products, is required to overcome these non-price barriers to use by industry.

Figure 16. Comparison of cassava flour prices with wheat flour prices in Colombia, 1981-95

Collaborators:

• Gregory Scott – CIP

• Rupert Best – Agroenterprise Development Project (SN-1), CIAT

• Margaret Quin – IITA

• Mark Rosegrant - IFPRI

2.1.C. Tendencias de la productividad agrícola en Colombia: L. Rivas and G. López

Resumen Está en ejecución un estudio de estimación y análisis de la productividad multifactorial del sector agropecuario de Colombia para el período 1970-1995. Este trabajo es la continuación de una versión preliminar que se había completado para el período 1970-1991 y que se hizo necesario actualizarla hasta 1995. Durante este año con el apoyo de un estudiante de economía se han desarrollado las siguientes actividades: 1) Revisión y ,actualización de las series básicas de producción, insumos y precios del período 1970-1995, para 27 productos agropecuarios. Tales series incluyen: Precios al productor, producción, áreas sembradas, uso de maquinaria, fertilizantes, empleo agropecuario y también variables que se espera que están asociadas con los cambios en la productividad agropecuaria: Inversiones en investigación, riego y drenaje, vías rurales, formación de capital humano.

Hasta el momento se han ejecutado las siguientes actividades: 1) Análisis de las tendencias históricas de la producción y de los insumos cotejando diferentes fuentes de información 2) Estimación de índices de productividad parcial y multifactoríal para el período 1970-1995. Se va a comenzar la fase de ajuste de modelos econométricos que ayuden a entender los cambios en el tiempo de la productividad del sector agropecuario de Colombia.

Collaborators:

• Departamental Nacional de Planeacion, Colombia.

• University Javeriana, Bogota, Colombia

2.2. Estimation of ex-ante impact

2.2.A. Impacto ex-ante de los Proyectos de Forrajes del CIAT: L. Rivas and D. Pachico

• Se efectuó durante 1997 la evaluación del impacto ex-ante en América Latina Tropical, de las actividades de investigación en forrajes contempladas en el Plan de Mediano plazo del CIAT.

• Los resultados de esta evaluación se compararon con los obtenidos en la evaluación del antiguo Programa de Forrajes en 1993. Las reformas introducidas a los planes de investigación en forrajes implicaron una reducción de 48% en la inversión en investigación y una reducción en los beneficios sociales esperados de 37%.

• No obstante lo anterior, la tasa interna de retorno (TIR) de los fondos invertidos en la investigación en forrajes subió de 55% en 1993 a 76% en 1997, implicando que por cada dólar invertido en la investigación el retorno esperado se incrementa en us$ 0.21.

• Las anteriores cifras sugieren que la reducción de los fondos y la consecuente reestructuración de los planes de investigación, han inducido una mejora en la eficiencia en la aplicación de los fondos disponibles. Esto es consecuencia de conservar dentro del portafolio actual de investigación en forrajes, las actividades que en la evaluación de 1993 se identificaron como las de mayor beneficio potencial, tales como el mejoramiento genético de las brachiarias y las tecnologías de pasturas mixtas, basadas en la leguminosa Arachis pintoi, y a la eliminación de actividades con menor potencial de beneficios como los sistemas basados en mezclas de leguminosas forrajeras.

• Se evaluó el impacto ex-ante de la investigación en forrajes bajo diferentes escenarios alternativos de apertura de los mercados. Se concluye que el grado de apertura de ellos, tiene gran incidencia sobre la distribución social de los beneficios tecnológicos mucho más que sobre su magnitud.

• Se analizó el efecto de la sustitución en el consumo de vacuno × pollo sobre los beneficios esperados del cambio técnico en forrajes. Tal sustitución reduce los beneficios esperados y es mayor en la medida en que el proceso de sustitución sea mas intenso y menor el grado de apertura del mercado. Al comparar dos situaciones extremas una donde no existe sustitución con otra donde la sustitución reduce el crecimiento de la demanda interna a –0.3% anual, en condiciones de mercado cerrado, se encuentra que los beneficios esperados, de la adopción de nuevos forrajes para producción de carne vacuna, se reducirían a casi una tercera parte.

• Las políticas proteccionistas que deprimen los precios internacionales de carne y de leche afectan negativamente los beneficios esperados de la investigación en forrajes, la reducción o eliminación de tales distorsiones incrementaría significativamente los beneficios del cambio tecnológico basado en pasturas mejoradas en América Latina Tropical.

Resumen. Se continuó con los estudios de evaluación del impacto ex-ante de los proyectos de investigación en el área de forrajes tropicales iniciada en 1993. En ese año se evaluó el impacto de los proyectos adelantaba el antiguo programa de Forrajes Tropicales. La reestructuración de las actividades de investigación del CIAT que se plasmó en el Plan de Mediano Plazo 1998-2000, condujo en 1997 a una revisión de la evaluación efectuada en 1993, ya que se habían producido cambios tanto en los recursos disponibles como en los productos esperados de la investigación. La evaluación pretendía esencialmente: Estimar el nivel de los beneficios sociales esperados de la investigación en forrajes realizada por el Centro 2) Estimar la tasa de retorno de las inversiones del CIAT en investigación en forrajes y 3) Conocer si en el proceso de reestructuración de las actividades de investigación se había ganado eficiencia en la aplicación de los recursos disponibles.

En este estudio se utilizó una metodología convencional de estimación de los excedentes económicos resultantes de la adopción de nuevas variedades de forrajes en producción de carne y leche en tres de los más importantes agroecosistemas de América Latina Tropical: Sabanas, Márgenes de bosque y Laderas. El modelo MODEXC ( Modelo de Excedentes Económicos) desarrollado en CIAT, se empleó para estimar los beneficios tecnológicos que capturarían tanto productores como consumidores. La eficiencia económica de los proyectos se expresa en términos del valor presente del flujo neto de beneficios atribuibles a la investigación de CIAT (VPN) y de la tasa interna de retorno de las inversiones en investigación (TIR).

La evaluación incluye diversos escenarios alternativos de comercio: a) Economía cerrada, en la cual no se permiten importaciones y ni exportaciones, b) Economía totalmente abierta, que implica libertad absoluta para comerciar, c) Economía parcialmente abierta, que posibilita exportar pero no importar y d ) Bandas de precios, un mecanismo que permiten las exportaciones sin ninguna restricción y que regula las importaciones a través de una franja de precios.

La comparación de los resultados de las evaluaciones de 1993 y 1997 en términos de valor presente neto (VPN) indican que como consecuencia de la reducción de fondos para investigación en forrajes en un 48%, los beneficios esperados atribuibles al trabajo de CIAT declinan en 36%.Tales beneficios que en 1993 se estimaban en us$ 4 billones bajaron a 2.6 billones en la evaluación de 1997. (Cuadro 1). La reestructuración de los planes de investigación implicó la eliminación o reducción de algunas actividades. En el Cuadro 2 aparecen los proyectos evaluados en 1993 y 1997 y sus respectivos VPN.

El cuadro 2 muestra como el proceso de reestructuración de las actividades de investigación en forrajes conservó dentro del portafolio de proyectos aquellos que mostraron los mayores de beneficios potenciales en el la evaluación de 1993. Ellos son el mejoramiento genético de brachiaria para obtener variedades de mayor productividad y resistencia al "salivazo". El género brachiaria está ampliamente difundido en los agroecosistemas del trópico latinoamericana, lo cual explica el alto potencial de beneficios al desarrollarse y adoptarse estas nuevas variedades. Otro proyecto de alto beneficio potencial que permanece en el portafolio de proyectos son las pasturas asociadas de gramínea s– leguminosas basadas en Areachis pintoi . Se trata de una leguminosa forrajera novedosa en la región por su características de ser perenne, de uso múltiple y alta productividad.

El hecho mas relevante es que la tasa interna de retorno (TIR) de las inversiones en investigación en forrajes se incrementó en la evaluación de 1997 con respecto a la obtenida en 1993. La TIR subió de 55 a 76% (Cuadro 1). Lo anterior sugiere que los ajustes introducidos a las actividades de investigación en forrajes del CIAT han permitido una aplicación mas eficiente de los fondos y que esa ganancia en eficiencia equivale en términos monetarios a u$ 0.21 por cada dólar invertido.

El estudio concluye que la investigación en forrajes en América Latina Tropical continúa conservando un elevado impacto potencial en virtud del tamaño del sector, los volúmenes de producción que genera y el alto valor unitario de los productos ganaderos. Otras conclusiones de éste trabajo son:

1) En general la apertura de los mercados tiende a incrementar los beneficios tecnológicos pero el mayor impacto es sobre su distribución entre productores y consumidores.

2) La distribución de los beneficios entre grupos sociales es importante no solo desde el punto de vista de la equidad sino para identificar aquellos grupos sociales que deberían financiar o ayudar a financiar la investigación. Dentro de un esquema de economía totalmente cerrada donde los beneficios del cambio técnico se concentran en los consumidores, no se generan mayores incentivos para que el sector productor privado financie actividades de investigación.

3) Las demanda de carne vacuna en la región ha tendido ha reducirse como consecuencia del proceso de sustitución en el consumo de carne vacuna por pollo. Bajo un modelo de economía cerrada, de continuar tal proceso de sustitución, tendría gran impacto sobre los beneficios tecnológicos esperados del uso de nuevas pasturas. La apertura del mercado ayudaría a atenuar la reducción de la demanda doméstica y a impedir que la sustitución reduzca considerablemente los beneficios tecnológicos.

4) Las distorsiones de los en los mercados internacionales de carne y leche, resultantes de las políticas proteccionistas aplicadas por los países industrializados, afectan negativa y significativamente los beneficios potenciales de la investigación en pasturas en América Latina Tropical. La reducción o eliminación de tales distorsiones mejorarían significativamente la magnitud de los beneficios esperados de la investigación en forrajes.

5) La distribución de los beneficios tecnológicos no solo depende del valor de la elasticidad precio de la demanda de un producto específico, sino que tal distribución es afectada por el nivel de apertura de los mercados, por la naturaleza misma del cambio tecnológico que se manifiesta en el impacto de la tecnología sobre los costos de los diferentes grupos de productores y por la política económica íntimamente relacionada con los esquemas de comercio.
   

Cuadro 2. Estimación de los beneficios sociales esperados de las tecnologías de forrajes en América Latina Tropical, 1993 y 1997. Valor presente neto (VPN) us$ millones de 1993  

2.2.B Cassava: M. V. Gottret and S. Wood

Background

During 1994, the former CIAT Cassava Program conducted a study to identify global cassava constraints and estimate future research and development benefits. This outputs of this study were used for priority setting, both on a global and agro-ecosystem basis.

Estimations were based on the following guidelines:

• Benefits were estimated using efficiency, equity and sustainable criteria

• For the efficiency criteria, the MODEXC model was used to generate benefit streams and internal rates of return.

• Benefit estimations applied to research starting in 1994 for the next 35 years, and did not included past research. The discount rate was set at 10%.

• It was ruled that across-programs, only 50% of the research benefits would accrue to CIAT, and the remainder to the National Agricultural Institutes (NARI). For cassava in Africa, 40% and 10% were accrue to IITA and CIAT, respectively.

• Cassava Program mandate activities were stratified by continent and agro-ecosystem and by type of cassava product market (constrained and diversified markets). In addition, cassava research and development activities were grouped following the project area structure i.e. gene pool development, including Manihot genetic resources, crop management, and post-harvest.

• In order to develop the K shift that drives the model, the necessary information was solicited form the CP scientists.

Main achievements

• A study to estimate ex-ante benefits of CIAT projects was started during 1997 with the following objectives:

• A new analysis methodology was developed to estimate CIAT project IP-3 (Genetic Enhancement of Cassava with a Global Perspective) ex-ante benefits, based on a methodology developed by IFPRI with the support of CIAT, and using a computer program developed for this methodology called DREAM (Dynamic Research Evaluation Analysis Model). (see section I.2).

• IP-3 project manager was asked to review the 1994 technology input data to decide which parameters were changed due to the Center’s downsizing of 1994.

• For the new analysis methodology, IP-3 project manager developed a technology spillover matrix.

• Ex-ante benefits were estimated for the following scenarios:

Progress report

Ex-ante impact assessment of CIAT IP-3 project: Genetic Enhancement of Cassava with a Global Perspective

1. Methodology

The methodology used for IP-3 project ex-ante benefit estimations is based on Alston et. al (1995). Figure 1 shows the model structure use for this specific analysis. In each agroecozone, two technology generation regions were used: (1) the short-run available technology that has already been achieved through past research and is ready to be delivered to NARs for adaptive research, and (2) the long-run available technology that still requires research. Technology developed in these regions can then be adopted and use in production regions, which were delimited for each continent by agroecozone. Finally, two aggregate consumption regions, were cassava is marketed, were defined: (1) a fresh and/or traditional market for cassava, where the elasticity of demand is relatively low (-0.4 to –0.7); and (2) an industrial or diversified market, where the elasticity of demand is relatively high (-2.0). The model was run with three scenarios:

1. With 1994 data (before the Center’s downsizing)
2. With new 1997 revised data (after the Center’s downsizing)
3. With new 1997 revised data and spillover effects

  Figure 1. Model Structure for ex-ante benefit estimation.

Input data used for the estimations in 1994 and 1997 are presented in Tables 1-4. As shown in Table 1, after the Center’s downsizing, CIAT stopped developing cassava germplasm for the lowland humid tropic agroecozone. Furthermore, cassava germplasm developed for the lowland semi-arid tropic and highland tropic agroecozones is now being funded through special projects. It is also expected that research conducted for the other four agroecozones will take a longer time to reach the NARs, and therefore, for first diffusion. Market parameters presented in Tables 2 and 3 are the same used for the 1994 estimations.

The analysis conducted during 1994 assumed that CIAT research on improved cassava germplasm was also applied to Africa, but only 10% of the expected benefits were accrued to CIAT, since CIAT is only involved in the selection of parental materials, which were subsequently shipped to IITA for incorporation into their breeding program. The new analysis methodology does not estimate direct CIAT benefits for Africa, but estimates the indirect benefits through spillover from technolgies developed for Latin America and Asia being adapted for African agroecozones. The spillover matrix used for the estimations is presented in Table 4.

Table 1. Technology input parameters.

Table 2. Production regions market input parameters.

Table 3. Consumption regions market input parameters.

Table 4. Cassava germplasm technology spillover effects matrix.